Getting the math right

Published in the Daily Star on 12 January 2009

THE ninth parliamentary elections in Bangladesh saw a landslide victory for the Awami League. The high-turnout election also saw Bangladeshi voters turn away from the BNP and its alliance partner, Jamaat-e-Islami.

The Jamaat, which had captured 17 seats in the 2001 parliamentary elections, was reduced to 2 seats in the 300-seat parliament in the 2008 elections. For Jamaat in particular and religion-based politics in general, it was a resounding electoral defeat.

Why AL Won

Published in the Forum (January 2009)

The Awami League has won the National Election 2008 by a stunning landslide for many solid reasons including some indefensible faults of its opponent. In a pre-election analysis Jyoti Rahman and I identified five decisive factors which were likely to determine the results of this election.¹

In the absence of a credible exit-poll, this article revaluates those determinants and correlates them with the final election results to see exactly what happened on December 29, 2008.

These are the five reasons, all of them reinforcing, which together created the conducive environment for AL’s massive win.

Anti-Incumbency
In western democracies, election result always goes against the incumbent when 50 percent of the voters think that the country is not on the right trajectory. Evidently, Bangladesh is no different either.

post-election blogtalk with SAJA [part 01]

South Asian Journalists Association [SAJA] orgnised this BlogTalk on “Bangladesh Elections and What they Mean” on January 05, 2009.

Speakers include: * Syeed Ahamed (i.e. me),  * Steve Herman, South Asia bureau chief, VOA * Sara Hossain, a lawyer in the Supreme Court of Bangladesh * Prof. Ali Riaz, chair in the Department of Government & Politics at Illinois State University; and * Asif Saleh, Executive director of Drishtipat.

post-election blogtalk with SAJA [part 02]

Full program available here.

On Political Reform and Syndicates: RTV

A post-election talkshow on RTV with Mr Abul Mal Abdul Muhit, MP, and now Finance Minister of Bangladesh; and Mr Inam Ahmad Chowdhury, Advisor to BNP Chairperson.

Aired on January 4, 2009